Exploring the Impact of Government Interventions on COVID-19 Pandemic Spread in Kuwait

To model the trajectory of pandemic in Kuwait from February 24, 2020 to 28, 2021, we used two modeling procedures: Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) with structural breaks and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), then mapped key breakpoints models set government-enforced interventions. The MARS model, as opposed ARIMA provides a more precise interpretation intervention's effects. It demonstrates that partial total lockdown interventions were highly effective reducing number confirmed cases. When some interventions, such enforcing regional curfews, closing workplaces, imposing travel restrictions, combined, their impact became significant. method is recommended be applied when exploring on spread disease. does not require any prior assumptions about statistical distribution data, affect data collinearity, has simple transparent functions, allows for accurate analysis intervention results.